沙巴体育app官方版

10月国内麦价重心抬高 美麦期价持续上涨
发布日期: 2019-11-03 浏览次数: 字号: [ ]

摘要: 受流通市场粮源数量下降以及用粮企业采购需求提升等因素提振,10月国内麦价重心抬高,国家临储小麦成交量同比大幅增加,部分区域溢价成交较为明显;受全球小麦供给前景忧虑及出口需求预期旺盛,美麦期价持续上涨。

一、10月国内麦市购销明显升温  麦价重心进一步抬高

沙巴体育app官方版10yueshouguoneizhuchanquliutongshichangliangyuanshuliangxiajiangjiazhiyumishichangxingqingzoushiqiangjingdengyinsutizhen,maijiazhongxinchengxianshangyitaishi,lujimaijialingzhangguonei,quyujianmaijiajiachayousuokuoda。shousiliaojiagongqiyejijirushicaigouxiaomaiyingxiang,mianfenjiagongqiyebeidongjiadaxiaomaishichangcaigouliduyibaozhengjiagongsuoxuhekongzhiliangyuanchengben。chiliangzhutizexishouxintaizengqiang,kucunxiaomaishichangxiaoshoujiageyuqitigao。jushichangjiance,jiezhi10yuedi,jiangsuyangzhoudiqugaojinhongxiaomaichuanbanbaojia2460yuan/dun,anhuibozhoudiqumianqibaixiaomaijingliangjinchangjia2480yuan/dun,henananyanghuaxiandiqubaixiaomaijinchangjia2480yuan/dun,hebeishijiazhuangxinjidiqubaixiaomaijingliangjinchangjia2500yuan/dun,shandongjiningdiqubaixiaomaijingliangjinchangjia2570yuan/dun。jiezhi10yue30ri,zhengzhoushangpinjiaoyisuoqiangmai2101heyueqijiabaoshouyu2699yuan/dun,jiaoshangyuetongqide2609yuan/dun,shangzhang90yuan/dun,zhangfu3.45%;qijianzuigaojia2769yuan/dun。

二、10月国家临储麦成交量同比大增  周度成交均价上移

shouguoneizhuchanquliutongshichangxiaomai“liangjiangjiazhang”dengyinsutizhen,10yueguojialinchuxiaomaichengjiaoliangtongbidafuzengjia,shichangzhutijingpaijiaoweijilie,bufenquyuyijiachengjiaomingxian。jutongji,10yueguojialinchuxiaomaileijitoufangshuliang1162.7156wandun,shijichengjiaoliang700.3889wandun,pingjunchengjiaolv60.24%,zhouduchengjiaojunjia2342-2355yuan/dun;xiangbizhixia,shangniantongqiguojialinchuxiaomaileijitoufangshuliang1198.4488wandun,shijichengjiaoliang11.9062wandun,pingjunchengjiaolvjinwei0.99%,zhouduchengjiaojunjia2328-2346yuan/dun。10yuecongzhuyaoquyuguojialinchuxiaomaichengjiaoqingkuanglaikan,jiangsudiquchengjiaoliang135.1729wandun,tongbizengjia133.283wandun;anhuidiquchengjiaoliang127.0491wandun,tongbizengjia123.8236wandun;henandiquchengjiaoliang185.3693wandun,tongbizengjia181.7601wandun;hebeidiquchengjiaoliang92.5106wandun,tongbizengjia 91.0777wandun;shandongdiquchengjiaoliang108.3275wandun,tongbizengjia106.5788wandun;hubeidiquchengjiaoliang51.8849wandun,tongbizengjia51.8849wandun。

三、供给忧虑及出口需求旺盛  10月美麦期价持续上涨

沙巴体育app官方版meiguonongyebufabude10yuefenquanqiuxiaomaigongxubaogaoxianshi,2020/21nianduquanqiuxiaomaichanliangyuguwei7.7308yidun,2020/21nianduquanqiuxiaomaiqimokucunyuguwei3.2145yidun。julianheguoliangnongzuzhi(fao)fabudeshijieguwugongxujianbaoxianshi,2020/21nianduquanqiuxiaomaiqimokucun2.848yidun,xiaomaikucundedabufenzengfukenengjizhongzaizhongguo,bubaokuozhongguozaineidequanqiuxiaomaiqimokucunjianglveweijianshao。juoumengshujuxianshi,jiezhi10yue23ri,oumengheyingguo2020/21nianduruanxiaomaichukouliangyida644wandun,tongbijianshao30%。jueluosizuidadeliangshitieluyunyingshangrusagrotransgongsifenxizhongxinzhuguanyigeer?pawensijicheng,10yuefeneluosijiangchukou440wandunxiaomai,11yuefenjiangchukou360-380wandunxiaomai。aodaliyanongyeziyuanjingjiyukexuejuyujibennianduaodaliyaxiaomaichanliangwei2890wandun,helanhezuoyinxingyujixiaomaichanliangwei2880wandun。jianadanongyejinongyeshipinbu(aafc)fabude10yuefenzhuyaodatianzuowubaogaoxianshi,2020/21niandujianadasuoyouxiaomaichanliangyujiwei3414.5wandun,shangnianwei3267wandun;2020/21niandusuoyouxiaomaiqimokucunwei630wandun,shangnianwei549.9wandun。youyuagentingzhongbudiquyijibeibunongyequzaoyuganhanheshuangdong,jiaoyisuojiang2020/21nianduagentingxiaomaichanliangyucezhidiaodizhi1680wandun,diyuzaoxianyucede1750wandun,yediyu2019/20niandude1880wandun。juwukelanzhengfuheliangshangdachengdeliangjiebeiwanglu,wukelanzaishiyu7yue1ride2020/21niandujiangchukoubuchaoguo1750wandundexiaomai,yiquebaoguoneixuqiu,tongshibimianchukouxianzhi。juwukelanhaiguanfabudeshujuxianshi,jiezhi10yue26ri,wukelan2020/21nianduxiaomaichukouliangwei1010wandun,tongbijianshao80.8wandun。youyumeiguobufendiqu、heihaiheagentingdengxiaomaizhuchanqutianqichixuganzao,weixiedaoxiaomaidanchanqianli;shouquanqiuxiaomaigongyingqianjingyoulvyijimeimaichukouyuqihaozhuandengyinsutizhen,10yuemeimaiqijiayanxu9yueshangzhangtaishi。jiezhi10yue30ri,meiguozhijiageqihuojiaoyisuomeiruanhongdongxiaomai12yueheyueqijiabaoshouyu598.5meifen/pushier,jiaoshangyuetongqide578meifen/pushier,shangzhang20.5meifen/pushier,zhangfu3.55%,qijianzuigaojia638.25meifen/pushier。meiguonongyebufabude10yuefengongxubaogaoxianshi,2020/21niandu(7yuedaocinian6yue)zhongguoxiaomaijinkouliangyujiwei750wandun,jiao9yueyucezhishangdiao7.1%,chuangxiawunianlaidezuigaojinkouliang。zhongguohaiguanzongshugongbudeshujuxianshi,zhongguo9yuexiaomaijinkoushuliang107wandun,tongbizengjia584.5%;1-9yueguoneixiaomaileijijinkouliangda606wandun,tongbizengzhang168.1%。

四、国家临储麦库存量持续下降  2021年小麦最低收购价小幅上调    

据统计,2020年以来国家临储小麦累计投放量11320.4447万吨,实际成交量1460.8719万吨,同比增加1250.8781万吨;其中江苏地区成交287.1059万吨,安徽地区成交267.1471万吨,河南地区成交459.726万吨,河北地区成交176.952万吨,山东地区成交209.4967万吨,湖北地区成交60.3696万吨。截至10月底,国家临储小麦剩余库存数量8439万吨,同比下降898万吨;其中江苏地区1810万吨,同比增加65万吨;安徽地区2032万吨,同比下降67万吨;河南地区3763万吨,同比下降453万吨;山东地区295万吨,同比下降215万吨;河北地区345万吨,同比下降181万吨;湖北地区194万吨,同比下降33万吨。2021年国家继续在小麦主产区实行最低收购价政策,综合考虑粮食生产成本、市场供求、国内外市场价格和产业发展等因素,经国务院批准,2021年生产的小麦(三等)最低收购价为每50公斤113元,较上年提高0.01元/斤。国内小麦大规模替代玉米很大程度上影响麦市主体购销心理预期,渠道库存水平提高进一步挤压流通市场小麦供给。由于国内麦价基本运行于国家临储小麦采购成本以及之上,这使得市场与政策之间的博弈趋于激烈。在国内政策“保供稳价”主基调下,国内麦价不具备大幅上行的供需格局和政策支持,麦价整体继续上行面临的政策阻力加大,区域间及品质间麦价运行空间有所分化。后期国内政策调控以及玉米市场行情走势对麦价影响力度加大。(来源:沙巴体育app官方版-正版APP下载

 




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